Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · New England Patriots

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 22, 2024 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-133/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller part of his team's offense this season, playing on just 25.9% of snaps compared to 46.0% last season.
Antonio Gibson's 28.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season conveys a substantial progression in his running talent over last season's 16.0 figure.
With a terrific tally of 4.56 adjusted yards per carry (75th percentile), Antonio Gibson places as one of the top pure rushers in the NFL this year.
With a terrific rate of 4.09 yards after contact (96th percentile), Antonio Gibson rates as one of the most formidable running backs in football this year.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's DT corps has been very bad this year, profiling as the 7th-worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

At a -14-point disadvantage, the Patriots are enormous underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the New England Patriots to run on 40.0% of their downs: the 10th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call only 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically lead to increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower rush volume.

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