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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 9th-most run-heavy team in football (41.4% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Patriots.

While Antonio Gibson has accounted for 18.8% of his team's rushing play calls in games he has played last year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of New England's run game in this week's game at 30.1%.

With a terrific rate of 3.51 yards after contact (92nd percentile), Antonio Gibson places as one of the tenacious RBs in football last year.

Last year, the stout Bengals run defense has given up a measly 4.67 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's running game: the 25th-lowest rate in the NFL.

The Bengals linebackers profile as the 6th-worst unit in football last year when it comes to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Patriots, who are enormous -9-point underdogs.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 60.7 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The 8th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots last year (just 56.2 per game on average).

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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