Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-139/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
Antonio Gibson has been given 32.7% of his team's carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
The Arizona Cardinals defense owns the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, giving up 5.00 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Antonio Gibson's rushing effectiveness (3.54 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (3rd percentile among running backs).
Antonio Gibson has been among the weakest running backs in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 2.54 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 9th percentile.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.