Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 31, 2022 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.9 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have run for the 10th-most yards in football (128 per game) vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be forced to use backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to be a less important option in his offense's run game this week (22.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (41.8% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Antonio Gibson has run for many fewer yards per game (38.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).