Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New York Giants defense has had the 2nd-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering 5.35 yards-per-carry.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this year (36.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last year (65.2%).
Antonio Gibson has rushed for a lot fewer yards per game (38.0) this season than he did last season (65.0).
Antonio Gibson's ground efficiency (3.60 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (8th percentile among running backs).
Antonio Gibson has been among the weakest RBs in the league at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging a measly 2.58 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 9th percentile.