Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (+104/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the most yards in the league (179 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
The Houston Texans linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller piece of his team's running game this season (38.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (65.2%).
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

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