Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 15, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-130/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The Washington Commanders have utilized some form of misdirection on 57.2% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup QB Taylor Heinicke in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 39.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this season (40.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (65.2%).