Antonio Gibson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+324/-602).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -569 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -602.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-most plays run among all games this week at 129.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.9 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to be a less important option in his team's running game near the goal line this week (23.0% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (35.0% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
The Indianapolis Colts linebackers rank as the best unit in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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