Antonio Gibson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+411/-896).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +423 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +411.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 61.8 plays per game.
Antonio Gibson has run for 0.33 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (79th percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 7th-most TDs in the league (1.17 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 5th-worst unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack near the goal line this week (18.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.4% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.

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