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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders

Antonio Gibson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+389/-814).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -626 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -814.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.

Antonio Gibson has rushed for 0.40 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (86th percentile).

Opposing offenses have run for the most TDs in the league (1.60 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense this year.

The Chicago Bears defensive ends project as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-least run-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 39.2% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to be much less involved in his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (26.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.7% in games he has played).

The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in run blocking.

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