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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Antonio Gibson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+193/-293).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +198 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +193.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 67.0 plays per game.
  • Antonio Gibson has rushed for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (91st percentile).
  • The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
  • The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 8th-least run-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 40.2% red zone run rate.
  • THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to be much less involved in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (38.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.7% in games he has played).
  • The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the least touchdowns in football (0.25 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
  • The Tennessee Titans defensive ends profile as the 5th-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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