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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans

Antonio Gibson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+193/-293).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +198 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +193.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 67.0 plays per game.

Antonio Gibson has rushed for 0.50 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (91st percentile).

The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 8th-least run-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 40.2% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to be much less involved in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (38.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.7% in games he has played).

The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.

Opposing teams have rushed for the least touchdowns in football (0.25 per game) against the Tennessee Titans defense this year.

The Tennessee Titans defensive ends profile as the 5th-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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