Antonio Gibson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+152/-205).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.
Antonio Gibson has rushed for 0.47 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest figures in the league among RBs (92nd percentile).
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have gone for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.
The Washington Commanders have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-most in football), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to be much less involved in his team's rushing attack near the goal line this week (65.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least TDs in the league (0.70 per game) against the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive ends project as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.