Antonio Gibson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+219/-337).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -315 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -337.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 8th-most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 45.6% red zone run rate.
Antonio Gibson has garnered 38.9% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
Opposing squads have run for the 4th-most touchdowns in football (1.44 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
The Houston Texans linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

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