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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Antonio Gibson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-168/+128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -196 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +128.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually cause better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.

The projections expect Antonio Gibson to accumulate 3.6 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs.

As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Miami's safety corps has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 54.3% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have only 124.5 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 26.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

Antonio Gibson's 20.6% Route% this year conveys a significant drop-off in his pass game workload over last year's 45.5% figure.

The Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all pass game stats across the board.

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