Antonio Gibson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · New England Patriots

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+133/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -167 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are big -11.5-point underdogs.
The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (35.2 per game) since the start of last season.
Antonio Gibson rates in the 78th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 14.7 mark since the start of last season.
Antonio Gibson grades out as one of the leading pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 2.7 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.
Antonio Gibson ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in the NFL among RBs, catching an impressive 85.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

The model projects the New England Patriots to be the 4th-least pass-focused team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.3% pass rate.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to see just 122.0 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Patriots since the start of last season (just 56.3 per game on average).
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, San Francisco's LB corps has been great since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-best in football.