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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

Antonio Gibson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -7.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are huge underdogs in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may suffer.

With a top-tier 9.9% Target Share (78th percentile) since the start of last season, Antonio Gibson places as one of the pass-game running backs with the most usage in the NFL.

Antonio Gibson profiles as one of the leading pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 2.7 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 4th-least pass-focused offense in the league (55.5% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the New England Patriots.

The predictive model expects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense since the start of last season: 4th-fewest in football.

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the impact it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Patriots profiles as the 6th-worst in the league since the start of last season.

Since the start of last season, the fierce Jets defense has yielded a puny 77.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 6th-lowest rate in football.

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