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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears

Antonio Gibson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+125/-155).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Chicago's group of safeties has been awful this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.

Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.

Antonio Gibson's 11.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 19.9.

Antonio Gibson's pass-catching performance declined this year, accumulating just 2.0 adjusted catches vs 3.0 last year.

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