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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 17

New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Chargers

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 6-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.

The passing attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

Antonio Gibson's 7.5 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a meaningful gain in his receiving talent over last year's 6.7 rate.

Antonio Gibson's 10.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season represents a significant improvement in his efficiency in the open field over last season's 7.5% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 58.4% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 9th-least pass-oriented team in football has been the New England Patriots.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have only 127.0 plays on offense called: the fewest out of all the games this week.

Antonio Gibson's 22.7% Route Participation Rate this season indicates a substantial decrease in his passing offense utilization over last season's 45.5% rate.

The New England offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Antonio Gibson has compiled substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (11.0) this season than he did last season (24.0).

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