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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Patriots, who are enormous -9-point underdogs.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Antonio Gibson has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 10.6% last year, which ranks in the 81st percentile among RBs.

With an outstanding 24.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (90th percentile) last year, Antonio Gibson rates as one of the top running backs in the pass game in the league.

With a stellar 6.7 adjusted yards per target (84th percentile) last year, Antonio Gibson ranks as one of the top pass-game RBs in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Patriots.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 60.7 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The 8th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots last year (just 56.2 per game on average).

The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league last year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

The Bengals pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. RBs last year, surrendering 5.23 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in football.

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