Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-117/-117).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 13.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 66.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

Antonio Gibson's 12.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 19.9.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 5.39 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 2nd-fewest in the league.
As it relates to defensive tackles pass-rushing, Philadelphia's DT corps has been very good this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

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