Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 18, 2023

Updated Jan 8, 2024 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a big 13.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The projections expect the Commanders to be the most pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 66.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
In this game, Antonio Gibson is forecasted by the model to find himself in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.4 targets.
With an exceptional 10.6% Target Share (81st percentile) this year, Antonio Gibson rates as one of the RB receiving threats with the most usage in the NFL.

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and increased ground volume.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in football.
This year, the formidable Cowboys defense has allowed a measly 26.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing RBs: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.
This year, the fierce Dallas Cowboys defense has conceded a measly 74.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.
As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's LB corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.

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