Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM EST

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 12.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Commanders, who are heavy -8.5-point underdogs.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 67.6% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being projected in this game) usually prompt better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower rush volume.
This week, Antonio Gibson is expected by the projection model to rank in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.7 targets.

Favors Under

Right now, the 9th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Washington Commanders.
Antonio Gibson's 14.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 19.9.
The Dolphins defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in football (just 23.0) to RBs this year.
This year, the fierce Dolphins defense has conceded a meager 78.7% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 8th-lowest rate in football.
The Dolphins safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.

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