Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to earn 3.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
Antonio Gibson has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 12.4% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
Antonio Gibson has compiled a whopping 5.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

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