Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 67.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.
Antonio Gibson has been a big part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 10.3% this year, which ranks him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Antonio Gibson has put up a monstrous 4.0 air yards per game this year: 85th percentile among RBs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Antonio Gibson has put up many more receiving yards per game (26.0) this season than he did last season (16.0).

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Antonio Gibson's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this season, totaling just 6.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 7.95 rate last season.
The Tennessee Titans defense has surrendered the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 24.0) to RBs this year.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.50 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.