Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Washington Commanders · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a monstrous 62.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to accrue 4.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.2% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Antonio Gibson's talent in picking up extra yardage have declined this season, notching a measly 6.27 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.95 mark last season.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (72.2%) to running backs this year (72.2%).

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