Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 20, 2022 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+108/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to earn 4.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among RBs.
Antonio Gibson has posted a monstrous 5.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
Antonio Gibson's 20.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 15.9.

Favors Under

The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.