Antonio Gibson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 2:15 AM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to earn 14.4 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have gone for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to be much less involved in his offense's run game this week (58.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (68.6% in games he has played).
The Dallas Cowboys defensive ends project as the 7th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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