Anthony Richardson TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Anthony Richardson

NFL · Player Props

Anthony Richardson

QB · Indianapolis Colts

TD Passes

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Anthony Richardson TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+186/-250).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +195 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +186.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to see 129.4 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
This year, the deficient Tennessee Titans defense has surrendered a colossal 77.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 2nd-biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Colts will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 51.8% red zone pass rate.
Anthony Richardson has been among the least on-target quarterbacks in the NFL this year with a 55.0% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 3rd percentile.

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