Anthony Richardson Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Anthony Richardson

NFL · Player Props

Anthony Richardson

QB · Indianapolis Colts

Passing Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 2, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Anthony Richardson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 200.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 194.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 200.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Colts have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Los Angeles cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-worst group of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in defending receivers.

Favors Under

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The predictive model expects the Colts as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Anthony Richardson has been among the worst per-play passers in football this year, averaging a mere 5.73 yards-per-target while checking in at the lowly 15th percentile.

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