Anthony Firkser Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Anthony Firkser

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Cleveland Browns · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:00 PM EST

Analysis

Anthony Firkser Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-112/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Anthony Firkser has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football among tight ends, catching a stellar 80.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 88th percentile.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has yielded the 10th-highest Completion% in the league (73.5%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (73.5%).
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has struggled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.73 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-most in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons have faced a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 55.1 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Anthony Firkser has been among the weakest TEs in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 13th percentile.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers rank as the best unit in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.