Andy Dalton TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Andy Dalton

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · Carolina Panthers

TD Passes

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Andy Dalton TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+175/-240).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +195 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 32.5 passes this week, on average: the 9th-least of all quarterbacks.

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