Andy Dalton TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Andy Dalton

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Andy Dalton TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+112/-142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to utilize backup QB Andy Dalton in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Andy Dalton has been among the top touchdown throwers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 1.75 per game while ranking in the 83rd percentile.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in football vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense this year (73.3%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 57.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 33.8 passes this week, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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