Andy Dalton TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Andy Dalton TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+162/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +168 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +162.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be forced to start backup QB Andy Dalton in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a mere 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.