Andy Dalton TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Andy Dalton

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Andy Dalton TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +130 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 4th-most pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.0% red zone pass rate.
The Cleveland Browns safeties project as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has given their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 26.4 passes in this week's game, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.

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