Andy Dalton TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Andy Dalton

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · New Orleans Saints

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Andy Dalton TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+195/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -275.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.5% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has surrendered the most passing touchdowns in the league: 1.55 per game this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 34.3 passes in this week's game, on average: the least of all QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 9th-lowest level in football versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year (67.1%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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