Andy Dalton Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Andy Dalton Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-119/-109).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to be much more involved in his team's running game this week (7.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (0.9% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
Andy Dalton's ground efficiency (6.01 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (79th percentile among quarterbacks).

Favors Under

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to accrue 2.2 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.
The New Orleans Saints have gone up against a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.