Andy Dalton Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Andy Dalton

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · New Orleans Saints

Passing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs New Orleans Saints · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Andy Dalton Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 127.5 (+110/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 131.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 127.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
Andy Dalton has thrown for substantially more yards per game (212.0) this season than he did last season (182.0).
Andy Dalton's throwing efficiency has improved this year, totaling 7.39 yards-per-target vs just 6.19 figure last year.
The Cleveland Browns safeties project as the 8th-worst collection of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The New Orleans Saints O-line has given their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 8th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 11th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 54.9 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 26-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to attempt 26.4 passes in this week's game, on average: the 8th-least of all quarterbacks.

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