Andy Dalton Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Andy Dalton

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · New Orleans Saints

Passing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Andy Dalton Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 214.5 (+120/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Saints are a big 8.5-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Andy Dalton has passed for many more yards per game (214.0) this year than he did last year (183.0).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 56.5 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 7th-least yards in football (just 194.0 per game) against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, giving up 7.27 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in football.

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