Andrew Ogletree Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

NFL · Player Props

Andrew Ogletree

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs New Orleans Saints · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 4:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Andrew Ogletree Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a monstrous 61.7 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Andrew Ogletree ranks as one of the most effective receivers in the league among tight ends, averaging an outstanding 8.63 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 85th percentile.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive blueprint to tilt 1.6% more towards running than it did last year (in a neutral context) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-focused offense in the NFL (57.8% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Indianapolis Colts.
Andrew Ogletree has been one of the least sure-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, catching just 63.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 19th percentile.
This year, the formidable New Orleans Saints defense has yielded a measly 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 4th-fewest in the league.
The Saints pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.6%) versus TEs this year (63.6%).