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Andrew Ogletree Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.The Colts have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.3 plays per game.When it comes to air yards, Andrew Ogletree grades out in the towering 78th percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating a whopping 23.0 per game.The Indianapolis O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 58.3% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league has been the Colts.Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.0 per game) this year.Andrew Ogletree has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching just 63.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 17th percentile.This year, the imposing Browns defense has allowed a feeble 25.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends: the fewest in the NFL.Since the start of last season, the imposing Cleveland Browns defense has given up a measly 67.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 4th-best rate in football.
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