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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 59.4 per game on average).

The predictive model expects Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 8.5 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among WRs.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 27.4% this year, which puts him in the 95th percentile when it comes to WRs.

With a stellar 6.7 adjusted receptions per game (98th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown rates as one of the best wide receivers in the game in the league.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's 82.9% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a significant growth in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 75.1% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies an extreme running game script for the Lions, who are a huge favorite by 7 points.

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Lions to pass on 53.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 129.3 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.

The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

This year, the imposing Bears defense has allowed a mere 63.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wideouts: the 10th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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