Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The predictive model expects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 9.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 29.8% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the best wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 6.7 receptions per game while grading out in the 96th percentile.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the most reliable receivers in football, hauling in a stellar 77.8% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 84th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The model projects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
The Lions offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.