Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Detroit Lions · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 7, 2023 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 10.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 30.1% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 99th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties grade out as the 7th-best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.