Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 4-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 9.6 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the top wide receivers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 5.7 receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.4% pass rate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (64.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (83.0%).
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.6% to 71.9%.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.

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