Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 10.0 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-least pass-centric offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 78.6% to 69.9%.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has given their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a measly 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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