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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+114/-152).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -146 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -152.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accrue 9.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a much bigger part of his offense's pass game this season (30.2% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.1%).

Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving talent has gotten better this year, totaling 6.7 yards per game vs a measly 5.7 last year.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the most reliable receivers in football, completing an impressive 77.7% of passes thrown his way this year, grading out in the 95th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.

The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

The Green Bay Packers cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Detroit Lions O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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