Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 10.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this season (31.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.1%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving talent has gotten a boost this year, totaling 6.9 yards per game compared to a measly 5.7 last year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, catching an impressive 77.9% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 94th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.7%) vs. wide receivers this year (61.7%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.