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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 11.0 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been much more involved in his offense's air attack this season (33.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (22.1%).

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 6.6 receptions per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.3% pass rate.

The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 78.7% to 75.7%.

The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (63.2%) versus wideouts this year (63.2%).

The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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