Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 24, 2022 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 8th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 11.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 100th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.6% to 74.4%.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the best collection of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

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