Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

New York Giants vs Detroit Lions · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 9.7 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been much more involved in his offense's passing offense this season (33.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.1%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 6.2 receptions per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 58.1% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the New York Giants defense this year: 9th-least in football.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 78.6% to 70.9%.

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